The bears grew hopeful early in the month, as global markets were spooked by events in the euro zone: Spain briefly brought back fears of bailout Armageddon, the Dutch government collapsed, and PMI numbers for the region came in weaker than expected. April Fools! The bull market remains intact and offers compelling value for those looking to build wealth.
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Equity markets sagged, as political uncertainty in Europe weighed on risk assets. The DJIA posted its worst week of 2012, and the S&P 500 hit a two-month low. European and Asian markets suffered moderate losses, while emerging market stocks had their biggest weekly loss since November.
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Equity markets globally have experienced a swift retracement from the highs reached in March, as European concerns — focused on Spain, this time — have resurfaced to grab investor attention yet again. We recently eliminated our overweight to high yield bonds and our underweight to core fixed income; our model portfolio now stands at a neutral position.
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Risk assets have paused of late, as investors consider the mounting global economic risks — unresolved debt imbalances, a recessionary outlook for Europe, a slowing China and mixed U.S. data, among them. Given contained inflation and accommodative central banks, we expect sideways markets with occasional bouts of liquidity.
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December data put an exclamation point on what proved to be an unexpectedly strong quarter for the U.S. economy, dismissing any thoughts that a new recession was near. Europe continues to march to its own, slower beat, however, as policymakers grapple with the region’s fiscal issues in the face of a tottering economy.
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Eight of the 17 euro zone nations currently are in recession; the region as a whole sidestepped this condition by only the slimmest of margins after reporting zero growth for the first quarter. Meanwhile, recent political developments and changes in policymaker rhetoric suggest that resistance to the German-championed age of austerity is mounting in the currency bloc. In contrast, the pro-growth path the U.S. followed out of the Great Recession has thus far provided a smoother trip, though softness in recent data has some fearful of another bout of the spring/summer economic doldrums.
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